Assessing the fuel poverty vulnerability of urban neighbourhoods using a spatial multi-criteria decision analysis for the German city of Oberhausen

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Abstract

Tackling fuel poverty has become an increasingly important issue on many European countries’ political agendas. Consequently, national governments, local authorities and NGOs have established policies and programmes to reduce the fuel poverty vulnerability of households. However, evaluations of such policies and programmes show that they barely reach those who are most in need. The reasons for this failure are diverse and include fuel poverty measurement metrics, local scale data availability and policy design. This raises the question of how fuel poor homes can be more effectively identified and targeted to ensure that limited local and national budgets are used to benefit those who most need help.

Area-based approaches, which pinpoint spatial units highly affected by fuel poverty due to their specific characteristics, offer an opportunity for creating more tailored policies and programmes. In this study, the author developed a GIS-MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis), using an AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and applied the approach to the German city of Oberhausen. The overall issue of fuel poverty was broken down into three vulnerability dimensions (heating burden, socio-economic and building vulnerability), the relative importance of fuel poverty criteria and the dimensions were evaluated by experts, and an overall Fuel Poverty Index was created to assess the relative fuel poverty vulnerability of 168 urban neighbourhoods.

The analysis offers insights into the spatial pattern of fuel poverty within a city and thus provides an opportunity to channel efforts towards households in those neighbourhoods most in need. It also demonstrates that a trade-off between ecological and social targets should be considered in the development of future policies for tackling fuel poverty.

Introduction

Fuel poverty has become an increasingly important issue at EU level and in several member states [1], [2]. A growing number of policy packages are in place to tackle fuel poverty [1], [3] and research into the subject has intensified over the past year. While the UK serves as a pioneer in fuel poverty research, with more than 20 years of experience [4], [5], research has only taken place in other European countries in recent years. Analyses exist for France [6], [7], Greece [8], [9], [10], Slovakia [11], Portugal [12], Austria [13], Belgium [14], Italy [15], [16] and Denmark [17], and initiatives such as the Fuel Poverty Network and the European Energy Poverty Observatory (EPOV) facilitate dialogue between relevant stakeholders to identify and resolve fuel poverty issues. Several studies have also been undertaken in Germany [18], [19], [20], [21], [22], [23], [24] and the Federal Ministry of Education and Research encourages discussion about fuel poverty as part of its “Research for Sustainable Development” agenda; however, the issue has long been almost a “blank spot” on the German research agenda [25].

There are many reasons why greater attention is being paid to fuel poverty and these reasons differ from country to country. A key issue is the growth in fuel prices; in Germany, for example, household expenditure on heating oil (+ 230%), natural gas (+ 100%) and electricity (+ 80%) has increased significantly over the last two decades (1994–2014) [26]. This development not only puts pressure on low income households, those living in energy inefficient homes or with disproportionate energy needs; it also compels policymakers to develop strategies for tackling fuel poverty because fuel poverty creates a number of costs for both the individual and society. Studies indicate that cold and uncomfortable homes negatively affect physical health and mental wellbeing [27] and in the worst cases can cause premature death [28], [29]. Fuel poverty reduces living standards and the everyday habits of those living in fuel poor homes and can contribute to social exclusion [13], [30].

Consequently, national governments, local authorities and NGOs have implemented policies and programmes to reduce fuel poverty. However, evaluations of such policies and programmes show that they barely reach fuel poor homes [31] or, as Boardman [74] concluded, “policy has been poorly targeted, resulting in high levels of misspent money, often more than three-quarters of the money in a fuel poverty policy failing to reach the fuel poor”. Against the background of limited local and national budgets, this finding raises the question of how fuel poor homes can be more effectively identified and targeted to ensure that funds are used to benefit those who most need help. To examine this issue, the author provides an overview of existing fuel poverty measurements and their limitations in targeting fuel poor homes. This study uses an area-based approach, assessing neighbourhoods in terms of their fuel poverty vulnerability. Therefore main driving forces of fuel poverty were identified and their relative impact was assessed using a GIS-MCDA. In contrast to existing policies and programmes, which measure fuel poverty at individual level, this approach assesses the fuel poverty vulnerability of neighbourhoods in terms of their specific characteristics. This not only offers an interesting insight into the spatial distribution of fuel poverty within a city, but also provides the opportunity to tailor policies and actions to those neighbourhoods most in need.

Section snippets

Macro scale measurements

Measuring fuel poverty is a challenging task. It is a multi-dimensional phenomenon that varies according to time and place, depends on individual household conditions (e.g. household income and characteristics, specific energy needs etc.) as well as external conditions (e.g. energy prices, energy efficiency performance of the building) and is subjectively perceived by individuals [32]. Moreover, measurement metrics depend on the task in hand. At national or EU level, measurement determines the

Research method

The author used a GIS4-MCDA (multi-criteria decision analysis) to identify neighbourhoods with high vulnerability to fuel poverty. A GIS-MCDA is a method “to support a user or group of users in achieving higher effectiveness in decision making while solving a semi-structured spatial decision problem” [53]. Thereby, it is a “procedure that transforms and combines geographic (input maps) and the decision maker's (experts or agent) preferences in a decision (output)

Case study selection

The area-based approach for identifying fuel poor neighbourhoods was applied to the city of Oberhausen. Oberhausen is a German city in the Ruhr area with approximately 212,000 inhabitants. Oberhausen's development was closely linked to the rise of the coal and steel industries at the end of the 19th century, but the subsequent decline of these sectors (starting in the 1950s) led to enormous socio-economic challenges for the city. Over the last 50 years, the city lost more than 50,000

Discussion

The analysis enhances the understanding of the complexity of fuel poverty and is, consequently, a first step towards the development of more effective spatially and content-adapted strategies and policies for tackling fuel poverty. It is difficult to draw clear policy recommendations based on a single case study; however, the selection of the city of Oberhausen was not incidental. It is representative of a number of similar cities suffering from economic decline. Such cities exist in the Ruhr

Conclusion

It is essential to have a clear understanding of fuel poverty and its measurement to design policies that are effective in tackling fuel poverty and reaching those who are most in need. To date, the evaluation of international and national programmes shows that the target groups are not effectively reached and this must be improved if fuel poverty is to be addressed. Reasons are manifold and lie in the measurement metrics, data availability and the design of policies and programmes. One way of

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Ministry of Innovation, Science and Research (MIWF NRW) of North-Rhine Westphalia in the scope of the project “Energy efficiency in districts and neighbourhoods” under research Grant no. 322-8.03-110–116441.

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